Again the distractions of a last minute push for a go live on a completely unrelated project still meant my mojo was far from back yesterday. I did secure a profit from the bookies and maintain the 3 day profit circle which was pleasing. Some of my apprentices absolutely caned the bookies yesterday which was pleasing. I will be at Kempton today which should be good fun albeit have to leave early to put this project live.
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I thought it was a case of a bad luck the losing days over the last 2 days but when I analyse my performance as is often the case there is no where to hide. You guessed it my GPP performance has dipped considerably over the last 2 days and the net result is I have crossed over to the dark side. The good news is that I have identified after just 2 days and know how to sort it.
The graph below illustrates this. You will see the purple line going south and coinciding with the blue line going south.
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I am suffering with the dreaded seconditus 
It has been with me for the last 2 days but I am sure I am over the worst of it. Gave the bookies 10 points today so that 14 back in 2 days. Will be wanting some interest on that tomorrow bookies so be ready. Enjoying my banter with Sportingbet at the minute.
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Well Wednesday have been poor this month and yesterday was no expectation. 4 selections did not even get a run and a short head in the last meant a small loss on the day of 4 points but my ROI for the month is still above 40%. I will update the graphs tomorrow.
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This month Tuesdays have been the best day. I am not exactly sure whether it is just a sequencing thing or has something to do with the fact that tends to be less races to get involved in and this helps with the discipline. I am not going to consider this too much though rather I am going to smile in the fact that I am now back over the 40% ROI mark for the month and have broken through the 300 points barrier. With 8 more playing days until the end of the month there is a good chance I make the 400 points mark. The top apprentice this month is sitting on 350 points with a ROI of 49.8%. Top apprentice from an ROI perspective has over 200 points with a ROI of 74.5%. The recent improvements to the system have really made a massive impact.
It will be interesting to see how today goes as Wednesday have been my worse day this month so far, with a ROI of a disappointing 14.4%. I nearly sent JP a note last night as once again he had a losing day and his confidence is clearly waning as he is thinking of changes things. I know from bitter experience that changing staking or lay off in running requires a lot of detailed research to find the right values. In the long run it dilutes your overall ROI but the trade off is a smoother curve. I have a great mechanism which I am not using right now but will be shortly that maximises this. I am just finishing off a couple of other projects and then I hit the betfair market with it. The key to trading off is to be invisible. If you are transparent then you become a target for the bots. In running players tend to be extremely sophisticated and are probably the smartest around. Simple reason is there is a lot of easy money to be had in-running. I don’t want to compete with them as I already have my niche but I would like to cash in my niche on the exchanges and after a lot of work I have found a way to combine the two in harmony without upsetting the balance or becoming visible.
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Lost a bit of discipline today and backed a few too many but no harm done as another decent profit secured for the day.
March to date:
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The bookies were in generous mood yesterday and it was nice to notch up another solid profit. The drama of the festival is still in the forefront of mind and I am very much looking forward to next year when I will be even better prepared. As I digest all the things I learnt this year, I have a feeling next year is going to a bumper one. For now though its back to bread and butter racing. To be honest making money is the game and that what I do. Too many tipping services are looking for punters and headlines winners rather than concentrating on what matters and that is return of investment. This is my experience very much in the industry. Everybody talks about it but rarely have strict metrics to measure it accurately. The beauty is I do.
I am currently trade below my target of 40% but 2.5% but that still represent a fabulous return. I have 7 apprentices this month who are above the 40% mark which is extremely encouraging and with more improvement on the way this target should become consistently achievable month after month. I want to get April out of the way and assess things then but I would be looking to raise the bar to 50% come May.
March update:
This year has been tough with the weather. To date I have 20 losing day from 74 days which is quite disappointing. My overall ROI is 10.1% but I am confident by the end of the year I will be north of 40% overall. Yearly graph below:
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